Mobile data traffic in South Africa will enjoy a compound annual growth rate of 53% in the next five years, and will reach an annual run rate of two Exabytes by 2018.
According to the Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2013 to 2018, the projected increase in mobile traffic is partly due to continued strong growth in the number of mobile Internet connections, such as personal devices and machine-to-machine (M2M) connections, which will reach 98-billion by 2018, approximately 1,8 per capita for the country.
From 2013 to 2018, Cisco anticipates that mobile traffic growth will be double fixed traffic growth in South Africa.
The following trends are driving mobile data traffic growth:
* More mobile users: In South Africa, there will be 40-million mobile users by 2018, up from 38-million in 2013. Globally, there will be 4,9-billion mobile users, up from 4.1-billion in 2013.
* More mobile connections: There will be 98-million mobile-connected devices by 2018, approximately 1.8 per capita for South Africa. The global number will be more than 10-billion mobile-ready devices/connections by 2018.
* More mobile video: Video will be 78% of South Africa’s mobile data traffic by 2018, compared to 50% at the end of 2013. Globally, video will represent 69% of mobile data traffic in 2018, up from 53% in 2013.
Key projections for the South African market include:
* 60% of mobile connections in South Africa will be ‘smart’ connections by 2018, up from 20% in 2013.
* In 2013, Machine-to-machine (M2M) modules represented more than eight% of device connections and close to one% of total traffic. In 2018, M2M modules will represent more than seventeen% of device connections and two% of total traffic in South Africa. M2M refers to applications that enable wireless and wired systems to communicate with similar devices to support global positioning satellite (GPS) navigation systems, asset tracking, utility meters, security and surveillance video.
* The average mobile connection speed will grow 2-fold (17% CAGR) from 2013 to 2018, reaching 1,543 kbps by 2018, from 704 kbps in 2013.
* 4G will account for 39% of total mobile data traffic by 2018, compared to 9% at the end of 2013.
* By 2018, 4G connections will support 13.8% of all connections, up from 1.1% in 2013.
* By 2018, 33% of mobile traffic will be offloaded onto WiFi/small cell networks, up from 20% in 2013. “Offload” refers to traffic from dual mode devices and supports cell and WiFi connectivity, excluding laptops) over WiFi and small cell networks. Offloading occurs at the user or device level when one switches from a cell connection to WiFi and small cell access.
In terms of mobile data traffic growth rates over the forecast period, the Middle East and Africa region is projected to have the highest regional growth rate. Below is how each of the regions ranks in terms of growth rate by 2018:
* The Middle East and Africa will have a 70% CAGR and 14-fold growth;
* Central and Eastern Europe will have a 68% CAGR and 13-fold growth;
* Asia-Pacific will have a 67% CAGR and 13-fold growth;
* Latin America will have a 66% CAGR and 13-fold growth;
* North America will have a 50% CAGR and eight-fold growth; and
* Western Europe will have a 50% CAGR and seven-fold growth.
Craig Zeeman, director: Transformation & Service Provider at Cisco South Africa, comments: “South African mobile data traffic will continue its truly remarkable growth, increasing nearly eight-fold over the next five years and growing twice as fast as fixed IP traffic in South Africa. Such growth is not only indicative of mobility becoming a critical characteristic of almost every network experience and the value consumers and businesses alike place on it, but it also represents the immense opportunities ahead for service providers who sit at the centre of the Internet of Everything.
“Mobile operators, globally as well as in South Africa, are seeking new ways to accommodate this surge in mobile data traffic, smart portable devices and things coming onto their networks. As mobile devices proliferate, so do the opportunities to strengthen relationships with customers by delivering a superior subscriber experience.
“Cisco is working with the leading service providers to build flexible, scalable, and secure networks based on the Cisco next-generation Internet architecture to help operators to not only manage the rapid growth in mobile data but also deliver a better service to their customers.”
